Monday, August 08, 2005


The potential for exciting good news is growing.

Iraqi Constitution:

We all know that Iraq is under pressure to complete its constitution. The Iraq situation is a very tough one. The Sunni Muslims account for about 90% of the Muslims world wide and the Shiite Muslims account for the other 10%. Iraq has been ruled my the minority for a long time. Writing a constitution is tough but it will happen.

Troops Coming Home:

A US troop reduction will occur in the not too distant future. The potential for this to happen is being down played to lower expectations. When the reduction is announced, the news will be a "surprise".


The SPRO tank is almost full. President Bush has stuck by his guns and filled the reserve giving the US a cushion against the potential terrorist attack or other oil shock. Other nations have also filled up strategic reserves. In the past 5 months, the US has stockpiled 6 million barrels per month! Six million barrels may be only a drop in a big bucket but prices are set on the last barrel demanded not the first. Therefore, starting this month the US has just "discovered" a major oil field. Oil inventories are already at unusually high levels. There has been a disconnect between inventories and prices. That disconnect can only go so far. Barring a major attack or disruption, I project oil will hit $54 per barrel or less between now and year end.

NWAC and Union to make a deal:

The maintenance workers at NWAC are between a rock and a hard place. They can strike and be replaced, they can keep fighting a deal and push the company into reorganization under the bankruptcy law or they can make a deal that is competitive with wages at other major airlines. This is newsworthy because the time for union capitulation is here. GM has announced outsourcing of part manufacturing to India. India is a very large, English speaking democracy. We do ourselves a huge favor when we offer the willing workers in India jobs. We hold down our costs and increase our standard of living. During the time that international trade has flourished, American has produced 10s of millions of good jobs, while helping other countries produce 10s of millions of good jobs. The better paying jobs have stayed in America.

There are many more Good News probabilities ahead. Ironically the economic news has been very good for many years but it has been discounted by the consuming and investing public. Indeed, wages have risen faster than inflation in the good old US of A for 10 years! We are living in an era of unprecedented prosperity. The numbers are there for the eyes to see but they are blinded by the specter of terror.

One should remember that there are billions of "good" Muslims around the world. "Good" because they believe in most of the same moral ideals as Jews and Christians. The extremist are relatively few in number. Including the extremist Jews and Christians. The poor will always be with us as will extremist. With time the bomb throwing will be dramatically reduced. Bombs were thrown on Wall Street more than 100 years ago and they will be 100 years from now. World leaders are of like mind. Terrorist are being hunted down.

Good news is coming. The market is currently over-bought and may pause for awhile but the good news will not go away.