Friday, June 10, 2005

Random Roger's Big Picture: Clear as Mud

The following comment was posted on Random Roger's post: Clear as Mud.


It is different from almost any other time except the summer of 1982! In the summer of 1982, real earnings yields on the S&P 500 exceeded the real earnings yield on the long bond. If once in the last 23 years is different, then this is different.

What Fisher said is that because of the soft spot, chances are there will be only one or two more fed fund rate increases. What Greenspan said is the soft spot is over.

I thank you Roger for the good topic and good discussion. By the way, the stock market exploded in value starting in August of 1982. In hind sight, the "inversion" in stock and bond yields was not a bad thing in the summer of ’82. BUY THE BIG BULL!