Friday, April 08, 2005

Net Stocks: Will Google hit $200 before it reports on April 21? - Advertising - Consumer Services - Media - Manufacturing - Analyst - General

Net Stocks: Will Google hit $200 before it reports on April 21? - Advertising - Consumer Services - Media - Manufacturing - Analyst - General

In case you have not noticed, Google, TIVO and Continental Airlines are my favorite stocks. My family owns many others. Goodyear Tire is certainly high on our list having moved from $5 to $12 in three years. We really like ETrade, QCOM, TXN and of course our oil drilling stocks, RDC and PDE. Our EBAY is temporarily out of favor and our GME and other "core value" stocks are holding up well. We hold a number of "big dumb and uglies" such as IBM, NSC and YELL but also many more that are related to high tech services including cell phone service.

Still Google, , TIVO and CAL have our attention. CAL is now our largest position!

We own shares in Yahoo which will announce earnings on April 19. We like Yahoo very much and have better than 400% profits in many of our shares but we think Google, is about to kick butt and take names. As the linked article suggests, advertising rates are high and Google, is gaining market share!

The next month is a potentially very volatile time for Google, . My guess is a positive surprise. If it is a large surprise, $300 here we come!

Ironically I hate it when expectations are too high. I hated that UNC was projected to win the NCAA championship. The expectation made a loss a real loss and a win routine. UNC won its fourth National Championship and many a basketball fan knows that it takes a great team and a great coach to win the big won.

In the case of Google, , I do not believe the market is expecting too much. I can't remember the exact numbers but the street has Google, down for something like 88 cents per share for the quarter and $3.95 for the year. I believe the Yahoo estimate is 11 to 13 cents.

I believe Yahoo will exceed by a penny or two and I believe Google, will exceed by a nickle, a dime or even more! I plan to keep adding to my Google, , CAL and TIVO positions. After USAir emerges from bankruptcy, I may add a cherry or two to the top of my airline banana split (my family owns AMR, CAL, NWAC and DAL). Airlines have two or three really great years out of every 10 or so and I believe they are due.

It will be a couple of years before TIVO add revenues ramp-up. The key time will be long before the revenues are strong. Will TIVO be able to offer shows supported by unique advertising features? Google has shown that contextual advertising is unobtrusive, high value advertising. TIVO can do the same for video.

By the way, Google, has now started Vblogs. Yes, individuals can now post videos to the internet. The high school play or game will never be the same.

Do the Google, Gulp!