Wednesday, June 01, 2005

Dick Armey: Instituting a flat tax benefits you

Dick Armey: Instituting a flat tax benefits you

The rhetoric is rising in regard to a flat tax. It must be true that the republicans feel they have at least a decent chance of passage.

I have been a sceptic because the idea to reform social security is necessary but still can't get a fair hearing. One never knows; even liberals have stated that the flat tax would be acceptable if it includes a high "deductible" that will be tax free.

According to Mr. Armey, a flat tax would save Americans an average of 26 hours each year. Tax forms could be completed in 10 minutes or less. All income over the "deductible" would be taxed one time and at the same rate. There would be not estate tax, capital gain tax or loop holes. The tricky part would be the elimination of the interest deduction. One idea is to phase-in the the tax over a five year term.

The flat tax is sweeping through Eastern Europe--giving these countries a business recruitment weapon. Old Europe, including France, Germany and Italy are at a competitive disadvantage. I believe it is Sweden that has the highest taxes but this relatively isolated nation does not face the same challenges as Germany or the USA.

Who knows what omnibus bill is going to come out of the house. The market is anticipating good times ahead. The market can only discount the probabilities and chances are good that republicans are going to continue to reform old and inefficient laws that have crept onto the "books". To the extent that waste can be eliminated, prosperity can be created for share holders and for consumers.

GO BULL GO!

Continental Airlines BEST of THE BEST!

Continental Airlines

THE HUB IS NOT DEAD!

Talking heads on CNBC have suggested that the airline hub is dead. The attitude is that low cost carriers will continue to take share through direct flights. These talking heads are looking at old news and they simply do not understand the dynamics of the airline business.

Their comments are similar to saying that trucks are going to take all the freight traffic from the railroads or that railroads are going to take all the traffic from the truckers. It ain't a gonna happen. Discount carriers are the equivalent of the trucks and the legacy carriers are the equivalent of the railroads. The good news for the airlines is that it took only a few years to rationalize labor contracts whereas it took the railroads thirty years.

CAL is launching six trans-Atlantic routes from its New York/Newark hub this year. The hub serves as the collection point to fill up the international flights. CAL is experiencing high load factors on domestic and on international flights. The company has continued to expand its code sharing agreements and is part of a very large international network that feed one another's flights.

Anyone from small to medium town America who has taken a cruise or any over-seas flight has probably flown more than two legs to get to the final destination. Discount airline cannot match the total program involved. Consumers are not inclined to book one leg through one airline, the second through another, etc. Businesses negotiate programs that offer savings as total purchases reach discount points. Frequent fly-er miles programs also encourage consumers to stick with one company as much as possible.

CAL CAL just won the airline "Oscars" again. The company won the OAG awards this year for Airline of the Year, Best North American Airline and Best Executive/Business Class Airlines. The company has won each of these awards two or three years in a row.

THE HUB IS NOT DEAD! LONG LIVE THE HUB!

BUY THE BULL! LONG LIVE THE BULL!

The Peridot Capitalist: The Wal-Mart Bear Market - Part 2

The Peridot Capitalist: The Wal-Mart Bear Market - Part 2

We bought Wal-Mart at a discount!

We have been doing margin buying so it makes sense to be careful. Wal-Mart is down about 20% in a couple of months. It is now selling at a discount to the S&P 500. I don't believe this has ever happened before.

Granted, Wal-Mart is not the growth stock of old but it still has a lot of growth left. The company will open 165 international stores this year. Wal-Mart has become the hated company of late. Small retailers cringe at the thought of a Wal-Mart opening within a five mile radius.

When I am at Myrtle Beach and there is a Wal-Mart and a Kroger at equal distance, I usually stop at the Wal-Mart for groceries. The store is too big and check out is slow but the prices are the lowest. At the Kroger, I have to find my discount card or dramatically over pay for some items.

The low price strategy will always appeal to many consumers. The world is a big place. Growth should continue for years to come. Growth should be at least as strong as the average stock. Our margin costs is less than 5%, we think we will see at least 12% return.

GO BULL GO!

MediaPost Publications Home of MediaDailyNews, MEDIA and OMMA Magazines

MediaPost Publications Home of MediaDailyNews, MEDIA and OMMA Magazines

Goldman predicts $12.3 Billion in on-line advertising. The news for Google continues to be fantastic.

THE GOOGLE GULP HAS WORKED!

SquawkBlog

SquawkBlog

I am internet challenged. I just spent 10 minutes setting up an MSN my space blog in the hope of leaving a comment on the squawk box blog. The comment button remained greyed out.

My comment was going to be about the flat tax. The flat tax is sweeping Eastern Europe. These economies are ready to expand rapidly. The bull market for the next few years is going to be strong in Eastern Europe.

George Bush will need another big win in the congressional elections of 2006 to have a chance of getting a flat tax passed in the US. It would be such a blessing to all but the lawyers and accountants.

GO BULL MARKET GO!

BULL MARKET

BULL MARKET!
BULL MARKET!
BULL MARKET!
The bull has made a good run. It may pause to rest but don't be fooled. Stay with it. Big money is made by those who are in early. Late comers run off the cliffs at the end of the trail!

SPARTAN STORES

SPARTAN STORES

As the BULL market continues, we will buy stocks with lower betas. Our accounts are currently loaded with high beta stocks. This means that when the market goes up 1% our accounts are likely to go up 2%. The past couple of weeks have been fantastic; our main account is now 12% above our previous all time high! This new all time high does not count new money added but is net total profits.

We will continue to ride the high beta stocks but we will add shares in slower moving industries. If Google is added to the S&P 500 and if it goes berserk on the announcement, we will probably sell half of our position. The removal of Google after the addition of lower beta stocks will mark a significant shift in a conservative direction. Please do not miss-read the above comments. We are bullish. We are buying all the stock we can. We hope Google hits 500 well into next year before we make the shift. Never-the-less, we are planning ahead. Spartan Stores offers good value. It is the kind of stock that you and tuck away during the second half of an economic recovery. It will seem sluggish relative to other stocks but it is like not seeing your 12 year old nephew for a year. He didn't grow much on any particular day but he grew a lot in a year or two.

If you're like most shoppers, you love to save! As a progressive leader in the food distribution industry for 80 years, Spartan Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ: SPTN) http://www.spartanstores.com/ based in Grand Rapids, Michigan, owns and operates 54 supermarkets and 21 deep-discount drugstores in Michigan and Ohio under the Family Fare Supermarkets and Glen’s Markets banners. The Company also supplies 40,000 private label and national brand products to over 330 Independent grocery stores.

Spartan Stores offer great prices every week on quality products for the consumer, including, Internet coupons and on-line specials to help the consumer save time and money.

The 330 business partners of Spartan Stores receive services that accelerate retail growth, productivity and profitability. A sound, working knowledge of retail operations by Spartan associates allows them to offer nearly 100 services which extend beyond the supply and delivery of product and into every aspect of a grocer's operation. Spartan Stores fosters innovation to ensure long term success.

On May 4, 2005, Craig Sturken, Spartan's Chairman, President and CEO announced the fifth consecutive quarter sales growth and fiscal 2005 first quarter net earnings of $1.6 million. Consolidated net sales for the 12-weeks increased 2.5 percent to $474.3 million from $462.6 million in the corresponding 12-week period last year.

Operating earnings improved to $4.9 million compared to an operating loss of $(0.9) million in last year's first quarter. This improvement was driven by sales growth and cost containment.

The Company reiterated its expectation for fiscal 2005 consolidated net sales to improve between 1.0 and 3.0 percent with comparable store sales ranging from flat to an increase of 1.5 percent. Consolidated gross margin as a percentage of sales is expected to be slightly higher than fiscal 2004's level by fiscal 2005 year end. Operating expenses in total and as a percentage of sales are expected to be lower than in fiscal 2004. Spartan’s leadership continues to judiciously invest in the company as fiscal 2005's depreciation expense and capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $23 million each.

What prompted this positive financial result? On January 21, 2004 Spartan Stores, Inc., announced that it has undertaken steps to consolidate its retail grocery store banners to streamline retail operations and establish a stronger, more unified retail store brand identity. The Company changed the name of its Ashcraft's Markets, Great Day Food Centers and Prevo's Family Markets stores to either Family Fare Supermarkets or Glen's Markets. The banner consolidation is expected to create a much stronger retail store brand identity among consumers by building on the existing brand equity of its two most recognized retail store names.

As Spartan places more emphasis on expanded services like in-store pharmacies, fuel centers, bakery and deli counters, they will continue to move in on the “big” guys. Their private label dairy products have also shown favorable results. Developing more robust corporate brands should improve margins.

This stock is in an industry with a healthy number of competitors such as IGA, D & W Food Center and Meijer. Spartan is one of the smaller players. However, since going public in August of 2000, Spartan’s stock has done well. Their 52 week high of $12.90 was on 5/23/05 and their 52 week low of $3.05 on 5/24/04, closing on May 31st at $12.90.

Again, these shares will add a defensive position to your portfolio. The best team is composed of a strong offense and a strong defense. Stocks selling at modest valuations sometimes turn out to be great offensive stocks. Sometimes they are bought by larger players and other times they continue to grow during difficult economic times.