Saturday, October 10, 2009

Peak Oil Fiction on Top of Fiction

The argument has been made that oil production will start declining by 2030 and that "governments" will not have time to prepare. How silly?

If it comes true, that oil production starts to decline by 2030, sharp increases in price will cause the law of substitution to kick into an even higher gear. The current pace of substitution is remarkably fast.

During the upcoming Christmas season, the "hot product list" will include electronic readers which will sharply reduce the energy spent in production, delivery and disposition of paper, particularly newspaper. The US Postal Service is shutting down hundreds of post offices and cutting one day per week of delivery while millions of tunes, videos and books are being delivered electronically.

By 2030, China will have built more nuclear power generation capacity than currently exist in the USA! Don't tell me that governments are not preparing for "peak oil".

On the other hand, take a look at the oil discovery news. Two hundred billion barrels of oil were discovered last year and BP and CHP just made a deal to spend $20 billion developing Iraq's fields.

Take a look at the research news in regard to fusion power generation. By 2030, the price of electricity is likely to have fallen in real terms by even more than it fell during the past 50 years. The lower the price of electricity, the more substitution that will take place.

It is time for you guys to move onto another topic. The phrase "peak oil" put fear in the hearts of readers last year when the price of oil was around $150 per barrel. Today, we are at $72 or so and on the way to $35. If your purpose is to generate web traffic by scaring the public, you need to find another topic.

in reference to:

"Steve Sorrell, the report's author, argues that even 2030 is too soon for governments to prepare."
- FuturePundit: Range Of Peak Oil Dates All Too Soon To Prepare? (view on Google Sidewiki)

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