Thursday, September 03, 2009

Cold Weather Coming? Real Estate Values to Climb!

Over the past 11 years, satellite readings have shown that the earth's temperature is cooling.  Indeed, the chart below suggests that the earth's temperature has only slightly bounced after starting on the down swing of an interglacial temperature peak.  The short term trend is clearly down but eleven years hardly establishes a temperature trend in terms of the interglacial cycle.  This cycle takes about 20 to 25,000 years to complete but the very obvious peaks only come in combination with other cycle peaks that occur about every 120,000 years.      

The 11-year decline in temperatures has caused fickle Global Warming Alarmists to change their fear phrase to Climate Change.  Using this term, any weather event, hot or cold, wet or dry can be referenced  as part of the coming disaster.  (In the 70's, some of the same crowd promoted fear of the coming ice age.)  To increase political power, the alarmist need to succeed in alarming.  Cap and trade legislation, like healthcare legislation,  is part of a political game to make money and to gain power.  The alarmist make statements that would make you think that the best overall health care in the world is actually on par with the country of Sudan      
Interglacial cycles are strong, but they are influenced by other less dominate, overlapping, cycles.  Thus, the shape and endurance of the current peak will not be the same as the one that occurred 120,000 years ago.  The good, bad or no big deal news, depending on how you look at it, is that much colder temperatures will hit in only a couple of thousand years.  Indeed, once prior interglacial peaks were made, temperatures fell quite sharply and steadily.    
Never fear healthcare is not here!  
Politically powerful trade unions are not willing to go along with the Obama healthcare package.  Thus if a plan is passed, it will not be as onerous as the original proposal.  Based on odds being given at betting parlors, the chances that any plan will pass this year are down to one chance in four.  

The declining odds of passage has served as a indicator to the stock market that our free enterprise system will survive the onslaught of power seeking politicians.  Share prices have jumped more than 50% over the past 6 months and health is returning to the real estate market.  
The real estate cycle averages 18.3 years, about 15 generally up years followed by 3 tough years.  We have just started the 15 good years.  Buy now!  You can worry about global warming or global freezing a couple of thousand years from now, if you live that long.  
Reference the above temperature charts:  Compiled by R.S. Bradley and J.A. Eddy based on J. Jouzel et al., Nature vol. 329. pp. 403-408, 1987 and published in EarthQuest, vol. 5, no. 1, 1991.Courtesy of Thomas Crowley, Remembrance of Things Past: Greenhouse Lessons from the Geologic Record  Here is a link to the Global Warming website.