Wednesday, September 23, 2009

18.3 Year Real Estate Cycle

The real estate cycle averages 18.3 years. It is composed of the good part and the bad part. The good part is about 15 years of up, with a hiccup about halfway through. The hiccup is a "manufacturing recession", like the one in 2000-2001. The bad part averages about 3 years, like the 1988 to 1991 time. Here is a chart from

It shows that mortgage purchases peaked in 2005 and fell for about 3.3 years before turning up. This morning, the report out of London said mortgage applications were up 88% year over year in August. We entered the 15 "good years" back in February of 2009. Real estate prices are on the way up!

Calculated Risk does a great job of producing charts!