Tuesday, November 04, 2008


In the picture below, could there be magic in Dorothy's red slippers? Dorothy, the Scarecrow and Toto need the help of a wizard. They are within the margin of error in Florida, NC, VA and Ohio. These states represent 75 of the 84 electoral votes needed by McCain-Palin. Should they run the table on these four the path to winning broadens out a little. Upsets in Nevada and and New Mexico could do it. An upset in Colorado could even do it, provided that all five of Nebraska's votes stay red. That one congressional district in Nebraska could throw at 269 tie into the house of representatives where the tie will go to Obama.

Add an upset in Pennsylvania to wins in FL, NC, VA and OH and several other paths for success open. Throw in the four votes in NH and even more possibilities open. Obama will enjoy massive vote count wins in states from California to New York. Our founders had the good sense to set up the system such that California's 55 votes is enough. Those strange people in California have enough influence as it is. It is possible that Obama could win the popular vote 52 to 47 and still lose to McCain. At least a few democrats would have heart attacks. A close vote could keep the senate majority at 57, far enough below a filibuster buster to make centrist compromises necessary.

Dorthy and Toto have slim chances but the wizard is powerful.

Are we all ready for the Tuesday following halloween?