Friday, October 03, 2008


Non farm payrolls fell at the fastest rate since March 2003. The stock market made a bottom in October of 2002 and then tested the bottom in March of 2003. It was smooth sailing for the next couple of years.

Employment is a lagging indicator. Once unemployment rates jump by 1.2% or more, history tells us that the turn in stocks is upon us. Inflation pressures simply go away by the time unemployment rates jump. Interest rates around the world can be lowered once it is clear that economic stimulus is needed, just as some central bankers finally let off the brakes a little, others step on the accelerator.