Friday, October 31, 2008

The McCain Long Shot

A regular reader sent the following link to a political quiz.

I score as a strong libertarian. In many ways, I am a classic liberal; I believe in freedom! I desire the least amount of government interference in my life as is reasonable.

I count the Rasmussen poll as reliable as polls can be, but a margin of error of 4% can be an 8 point swing. The race for President has tightened but McCain is still a 4 point underdog; he could squeak out a win or he could lose by more than 8. His hope lies with the electoral collage. Our founding fathers wisely set up a system whereby California (which did not exist) could not rule the land. The law of the land is that the electoral college vote is the one that counts, several million votes against McCain in New York and California will be of no consequence. McCain's best shot is to win all the "slightly leaning" states and to pull off upsets in Ohio, Colorado and Virgina; a tall order indeed. Virginia has traditionally voted republican but it leans heavily toward Obama. A number of other combinations would work but all are long shots.

Stranger things have happened and the turnout should break several long term records. A significant percentage of democratic voters are opposed to one party government, when push comes to shove, many a centrist democrat will "pull the lever" for McCain. Our country continues to struggle with the unintended consequences of one party rule under FDR and Lyndon Johnson. The one party rule from 1992 to 1994 resulted in no harm when republicans blocked the big government takeover of health care proposed by Hillary, but the potential harm of a Pelosi, Reid, Obama combination is great. My opinion is that the actual harm will be much smaller than the potential but we should avoid the risk if we can.