Friday, October 31, 2008


The "bust to boom" indicator made a sharp bottom at a very low ratio 4 days ago. This indicator has historically made sharp turns. It often makes a few pump fakes but once it turns it typically turns hard. At the last top, the indicator outdid itself. It did a few pump fakes in early 2006 and then dropped like a rock, only to do a 180 back to a final top in May of 2007. The fall from 57% in May 2007 to 26% last week was the largest move I can find. On October 10, 2002, the jumping off point for stocks after the last recession, the indicator had reached 30%. At that bottom, the indicator soared from 30 to 34 and then back to 29 in April of 2003 when the market successfully stayed will above the October 10 low. The jump of the last 4 days may be a pump fake but smart investors will not try to catch the exact bottom. Those who have bought when this indicator is below 34% have had very strong 3 and 4 year returns.