Thursday, June 19, 2008

Snowballs Are Starting to Roll -- BUY, BUY, BUY

Another strong buy signal plus the following.

July 13, Olmert will meet al-Assad in Paris. The deal between Syria and Israel is essentially ready to sign.

Condi Rice reports that North Korea is ready to declare the details of its nuclear bomb program and thus Bush is prepared to remove North Korea from the terrorist state category. Sanctions will be removed and trade deals will flourish.

The Saudi Summit this weekend will discuss ways to lower the oil price. The price is down $3 today and the airlines are cutting out their non profitable routes.

The EU will hold a summit Tuesday at which Brown of England will push for additional sanctions against Iran.

Iran has declared that they are ready to discuss the UN package of incentives.

Condi Rice chaired a conference today where the use of rape as a weapon of war was discussed.

Russia has tested the depths by drilling a 40,000 feet oil well. Mother Russia struck massive quantities of oil.

After Condi Rice visited Lebanon, she said that the new government is good for the people of Lebanon and thus good for the USA.

Patterns that are developing include:

1) High level negotiations are taking place.

2) Leaders from France, Egypt, Turkey, UAE, Oman and others are working hard as mediators.

3) Condi Rice is "in the news".

4) There is steady movement toward drilling for oil in the USA. (A democrat just came out in support of nationalizing the US refining business but common sense is starting to flare up in other minds.)

5) There is a definite push to get nuclear power deals in place quickly.

The info about the 40,000 foot well in Russia came from a Youtube sent to me by a regular reader. Lindsay Williams, the author of "the Energy Non Crisis", says that there is 200 years worth of oil on the Alaskan North Slope. His estimates sound overly enthusiastic to me. One of the factors he does not mention is the cost. I have forgotten the details but Exxon spent something like 200 billion dollars on one very deep well in the Gulf of Mexico. I am fairly sure it was not nearly 40,000 feet deep. Who is going to routinely spend several hundred billion dollars in search of crude that is very expensive to lift?

I happen to believe that oil is renewable. I believe it is being manufactured all the time. I believe only a small portion has been discovered. Still, it is not realistic to expect drillers to spend 200 billion on a well immediately after a big run up in the price. If the price were to remain above $130 per barrel, I would expect super deed drilling to become routine. The huge quantities discovered in Brazil are at about half the depth of the Russian well. Drillers are leasing drill ships for as much as $600,000 per day. The congressman who want to nationalize US refineries is the type of guy that would look at Tiger Woods playing golf and decide that the game is easy.

Iraqi troops just waltzed right into another militia strong hold. Peace is breaking out in Iraq and Iran is ready to talk. Snowballs are gathering momentum. Rice is in the news. I hear a draft Rice for VP chant in the distance.


On top of many other buy signals, check out the following.

Thompson DataStream has produced a chart showing the amount of money on the sidelines is at breakout levels. At the 1981market bottom, the peak in money relative to corporate stocks reached 21%. It hit 18% at the market bottom in 1990. It reached a low of only 7% near the market peak in 1999. It reached 20 at the bottom in 2002 and it is at 23 today!