Monday, May 05, 2008


Russia sneaked onto the court and six players put a full court press on Iran last week. It ended when Iran called time out to complain to the referees. Iran claims the 6 want to change the rules and that Iran wants to play by the rules.

Iran has gotten just a little support for its version of the rules. India and Pakistan, who are anxiously awaiting approval of a massive pipeline deal from Iran, have spoken out in support of Iran. Iran is holding the ball. The game cannot restart unless Iran decides to play. The rest of the world has said that Iran is suspended from other sports until this game is settled.

In the meantime, Nigerian rebels have disrupted oil production again. The market has over-reacted once again. When the weekly oil report is announced on Wednesday, I expect the numbers to show more demand destruction. Today, it was reported that a number of car dealers no longer accept the biggest of the SUV's on trade. A parked SUV consumes no fuel. Total US gasoline consumption may go from zero growth over the past 3 years to negative growth.

It is more likely that the Microsoft, Yahoo saga is over than the negotiations with Iran. Hoarding will subside soon after a deal is made. When the hoarded oil comes back on the market, the price will fall faster than most people would believe to be possible. Time will tell.