THE BIG HANG UP

I am writing several times a day because the "big hang up" is over! I must admit that it has been hard to "keep faith" in the normal business cycle for the past year or more as the market cycle backed up and stalled out. It made it seem like "something is different this time". In truth, something is different in each cycle. This time, the price of commodities hung tough and refused to go down. The level of world growth was something the world had never seen before. Who could possibly have predicted that a huge country the size of China would grow its GDP by better than 10% year after year even after pushing the price of fuel and materials to all time record highs.

The big wait is over! The price of commodities has finally turned. With gold, copper and other metals crashing down, the love of gold is going to feel like the curse of Midas. People who have piled-on and added-to will not be able to sell out fast enough. The economic cycle chart has taken a spin-ahead as the next expected events have already happen and started, a significant rally in bond prices and a rally in financial stocks (small banks that lend to small businesses will benefit the most -- buy the Russel 2000 in IRA accounts).

The next event is already scheduled, the pending $600 helicopter money drop; the result being a boom in consumer cyclical stocks. Consumers are about to be flush with money because of savings at the gas pump, savings on interest payments, the extra $600 and larger than average income tax refunds. Not to mention the extra net cash flow from rental properties.

Keith Hays reports that every single indicator followed by Hays Advisory is Bullish. Each of the following indicators have hit levels that produced average annual returns as follows:

AAII 21.75%
Gambill 22%
Eq. Put-Call 21.5%
Vix 16.2%
Arms 16.3%
T-bill 23.3%
Fed 18.8%
Cash 23%
Rule of 20 17%
IBES 30%
Double 90's 22%

The level of money market cash to money market plus equities has reached the current levels only two times in the past 35 years, in February of 2003 and in August of 1982! Talk about buying opportunities, this is a rare time indeed!

ALL THE WORRIES FADING AWAY FAST

For month after month, the market has worried about high inflation as evidenced by the soaring price of gold and oil. During the same months, the market has worried about the risk of recession as evidenced by the housing crunch. Well the inflation rate forecast of gold is suddenly calling for lower inflation and the housing crunch suddenly faces fixed rate loans of less than 5%! Like a major flood, the housing market cannot withstand the power of cheap money. If you have a house picked out to buy, you better get it now because the deep bargains will disappear rapidly.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF MARKET VOLUME

The market is now in a rapid rotation. Market indexes are up this morning an average of better than 1% while basic materials and energy stocks are down better than 1%. The long awaited rotation is showing up loud and clear.

DIG DEEP AND ADD AT LEAST A FEW DOLLARS TO YOUR ACCOUNTS!

You must make hay while the sun is shinning and the sun is shinning bright. Certainly, there are false starts and retreats to every market but this market made an internal low on January 21 and it has since tested that low. There has also been a long list of significant events that have given support to the housing and financial markets. The FOMC drug their feet on lower loan rates from August 2007 to late January 2008. The big cuts made in January of 2008 should have been made earlier but add the 1.25% cut in late January to the .75% in march and the total recent cut from 4.5% to 2.5% is a massive stimulus to the economy. A 45% cut in interest rates on trillions of dollars of loans and future loans is massive relative to the helicopter money that is about to drop. The current situation is like finding a $45,000 car on sale for $25,000. The public will not be able to resist borrowing and spending next month. Many a tax filer will select a refund loan as soon as his taxes are filed and significant sums of disposable money will flow into consumers pockets starting April 15. The fact that this money will have to be paid back will be a worry for another time. Businesses that wish to sell to consumers must start building inventories now!

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