Sunday, February 24, 2008


Even though Hillary and Obama have proposed socialist policies in their attempts to win the democratic nomination, Ralph Nader has once again entered the race as an independent. The effect is to help keep Hill-Obama to the left. Had Nader not been a candidate 8 years ago, Gore would have beaten Bush. Now one can argue that the republican congress would not have allowed Gore to spend such big money as has Bush but the entry of Nader does tilt the odds a little bit toward McCain.

Obama's supporters certainly have enthusiasm but will "the mad in the middle" support Obama or McCain. The far right has threatened to stay home but, so far, McCain is being left with more freedom to try to capture "middle men" than Obama.


Even though NWA pilots will get 25% raises upon merger with DAL, they are still battling for the best seniority deal they can get with DAL pilots. I expect the issue to be resolved within a few days because the one time bonus and increased pay are calling.


This week offers a lot of potential for a financial turn around. A bailout of the mortgage insurance companies would cause a whole lot of mortgage backed securities to bounce in price. Banks, investment banks and insurance companies should see the first bounce but the ultimate ripples should be far and wide. The market has repeatedly had trouble negotiating the mid cycle turn because short term interest rates have had to be lowered to save the financial economy before the speculative fever has been run out of the commodities economy. The turn of the mortgage market will ultimately result in the turn in the price of gold and oil.

We have been here a few times in recent months but, this time, I believe we will get over the hump!