Friday, January 04, 2008


Late in the trading day United Airlines traded up $1.40 on triple its normal volume. UAUA was pounded extremely hard like the other major airlines in 2007. During a time of billion dollars for this and that, the total market value of AMR is about 3 Billion.

Those who want to make serious money should buy 'em while they are cheap! Yes, it takes money to buy and it is nerve racking to buy in the front of all the talk about recession. Investors should remember that the time to buy is when the news is at its worst. The term the Rothschild's used was "buy when there is blood in the streets". A long list of regional carriers are at risk of bankruptcy. These little carriers made out like bandits until the "big boys" "rationalized" their business. The "big boys" are now willing to cancel flights that are not profitable. Airline ticket prices will double and double again on long haul flights during the next few years.

16,15, 14

Do not believe that Hillary has been beaten. The delegate allotments from Iowa are 16, 15 and 14. From all the hoopla in the news, one might believe that Obama beat Hillary 100 to 1. A win of 16 to 15 is no big deal. In an ironic twist, Hillary ran third on popular vote but achieved 2nd place in the delegate count. I bet she does not call on the courts to change the results. Despite what you might have heard, John Edwards came in third place and his campaign is on life support. Hillary is still the leader. The nomination is hers to lose. She has accumulated something like 175 delegates to Obama's 61. She and Bill are owed political favors by thousands of "connected" politicians all across the country.

The general election is likely to be another knock down drag out close call. Hillary is still very likely to be the democratic nominee and if she and Obama make nice, a Hillary-Obama ticket will be tough to beat. The nation would be assured of a black vice president if the veep contest is between Obama and Rice. Of course, if Hillary is the nominee and if Rice is the republican veep nominee, a woman will be elected as President or Vice President for the first time.

Black men got the right to vote around 1870 and it took another 25 or so years before women won the right. It will be interesting to see which will be elected first a woman or a black or both.

Huck polls well with women, the working man and independents. He could put together a coalition that would be very similar to the Reagan coalition of old. The republican race is a four way deal. Rudy, Mitt, John and Mike all have a shot. Thompson and Paul may stay around for a while but their chances are slim. I believe the most likely final battle will be between John and Mike. This will not please the Kudlow, supply side, crowd, but non of these candidates is perfect. They all believe in the reduction of wasteful government spending. The Iowa vote demonstrated that Americans want change. Huck is conservative but he believes in giving the "little man" a fair shake. He is the candidate of change on the republican side.

May I suggest you read up on the Fair Tax. The only reason we tax income so heavily is because we started taxing to pay for the first World War. It makes more sense to tax spending than investment and income. There is no perfect tax but the Fair Tax would eliminate tons of unnecessary regulation and wasteful tax avoidance schemes. Enforcement would be simpler than the current system.


The FOMC may cut rates before the next meeting. On the other hand, Bush may be setting up to propose a significant tax cut. His proposal given at the state of the union address will likely include a simplification to tax law and a significant cut to corporate taxes. It is an economic fact that high taxes in America have contributed to job outsourcing. I do not care if it is a fiscal or monetary stimulus that changes the sentiment but when it changes a number of stocks are going to explode in value.