Wednesday, January 16, 2008


Today's economic numbers show that there is still no recession pending. The public is running scared but business is strong. Industrial production and exports will keep us alive until rate cuts work their magic. The market projects that rates will be cut at least .5% by January 31.

Romney 42, Huck 32, McCain 13 and Thompson 3

McCain 29, Huck 20, Romney 14, Giuliani 12.8, Thompson 9

The first series of numbers is the number of delegates won. Romney has the lead over Huck in this category.

The second series of numbers is the average of the national polls before the results of the Michigan primary. McCain got a huge surge after New Hampshire but his significant loss in Michigan once again shows that he does not get as much support from republicans as he does from independents. As you can see, Romney leads in the vote count but he ranks low in the national polls. Romney is reported to have spent as much as $50 million dollars to take this lead. Still he will battle Thompson for 3rd or 4th in South Carolina and, even if he spends 20 million in Florida, I doubt that he will win.

Note that Giuliani has no delegates and is betting the ranch on the "big prize in Florida". Florida is a winner take all state and it offers 54 electoral votes!

Also note that Thompson is running behind in both delegates and in the polls. He is even running third or fourth in South Carolina where he is making his big stand. McCain leads SC in the polls taken before yesterdays hit in Michigan. Huckabee was leading in SC before Thompson launched his "Huckabee is a liberal" attacks. Huckabee has been able to counter but the truth is that the battle is hurting both candidates. Thompson is a McCain supporter so he may be staying in just to help McCain. The South Carolina winner will have a major advantage in the early going in Florida. SC should be a close call between Huck and McCain.