Tuesday, September 04, 2007


This cycle continues to be stretched. Each is different. The following numbers show what has happened in the past. The past tells us what is possible not what is to be.


Jan 1995 $4.60
Jun 1996 $31.00
Sep 1996 $21.60
Jun 1998 $61.60
Sep 2004 $8.8
Jan 2007 $52.40
Aug 2007 $27.0?????

In 1995, the stock went up better than 6 times in 18 months.
In 2004, the stock went up slightly less than 6 times in 28 months.
In 1996, the stock lost 30% of its value during the mid cycle correction.
In 2007, the stock lost 48% of its value during the mid cycle correction.
Over the next 21 months, the stock went up 285% after the mid-cycle correction in 1996. 2.85 times $27 is $76.95.

I believe the international nature of this business cycle could make the climb last a longer time and ultimately be significantly larger, however, I will not cry if the stock only goes to $76. A fully margined gain of 285% could net 1,400%.

Now don't tell me that 14 times your money would make you sad. Of course, most accounts are not fully levered nor will they stay fully levered. It takes a thrill seeker to ride the biggest of the roller coasters. I hope we can all find and maintain a comfortable and appropriate level of "thrill seeking" for our own circumstances.