Wednesday, February 01, 2006

22 Million Barrels

Another 22 million barrels of oil was found in Siberia. Drop by drop, oil is being discovered.

Imperial Energy, said the find is significant because it shows there is much more oil in the area.

There are many more large pockets of oil to be found. Saudi Arabia continues to expand the number of drilling rigs in operation. In three years, the Saudi's have increased the big rigs from 200 to 400 and are adding more. The Saudi's expect to increase production by 50% in just a few years.

Last night, President Bush proposed a 22% increase in spending on research and development of alternative energy. In my experience, once the economies of the world are aware of a way to make or save billions of dollars, the solutions are just a matter of time.

Today, UAL comes out of bankruptcy. I do not like the management at UAL relative to the management at AMR and CAL. At the present moment, I plan to take a good look at the opening price of the new stock but I will most likely continue to add to CAL or AMR.

UAL made many serious cost cuts while in bankruptcy. However, their costs per seat mile are still in line with AMR and CAL which made the cuts without having to spend the shareholders money on bankruptcy fees (enormous fees).

Oil is being discovered, airlines are flying with more seats full than ever before, non fuel costs have been cut and fares are rising. I expect three great years for the airline business. CAL and AMR could very possibly zoom from around $21 to around $84 in three years.

Investors should be mindful that the huge leverage cuts both ways. With mountains of debt, the airlines are not "over the hump". However, the upside is also huge. Patient investors should do well by buying and holding the major international carriers for the next three or more years.