Friday, November 25, 2005


The girls left to hit the outlet malls early. Myrtle Beach is famous for having more than 100 golf courses which perhaps correlates to the large number of outlet malls.

The weather is beautiful, the turkey was delicious and life is good. It is clear that real estate firms are gearing up for the coming season. Mortgages rates are finally trending down and demand for second homes is getting new life. A side unit here in the South Hampton Building recently sold for around $750,000. The unit is not the prime location so the sale is a good indicator that front corners may hit a million dollars this spring.

Some folks think the real estate "bubble" has popped. The reality is that of the 78,000,000 baby boomers in this country, only a small portion have purchased a second home. The second reality is that no matter how negative many folks are more families can afford two homes than ever before.

My family has enjoyed being in Myrtle Beach 18 of the last 19 Thanksgivings. One cannot ask for a much better environment to enjoy a holiday with family. With a granddaughter on the way, the shopping is all the more fun. My son-in-law and I will visit the Bass Pro Shop today. We will avoid the mall.

As far as the market goes, it is trading up a little. Sometime in the next few weeks, I believe there will be a break in gold and industrial metals prices. There will be a jump in bond prices. Earnings may drop a little as the most profitable companies, the oil companies, are now experiencing very low crack spreads. With the exception of miners and oil companies, the market should do well. The current overbought situation must be worked off. The market does not have to go down a lot to cause sentiment to switch. For example, the switch could be part of a rotation where energy stocks decline. Happy Thanksgiving!