Tuesday, August 02, 2005

Ahh, 18 Hours of Comfort on a Long-Haul Airplane - New York Times

Ahh, 18 Hours of Comfort on a Long-Haul Airplane - New York Times

AHH IS CORRECT!

The reasons that CAL is my families largest position are made clear in the attached NYT article. Continentals international revenues were up 20 to 25% last quarter (domestic revenues up better than 5%), the company is making money while paying extraordinary prices for fuel. The company is adding planes that have a range of 9,500 miles. The company has added many long-haul routes.

The booming economies of China and India in particular are adding and abetting CAL's growth. AHH is correct. If this major airline can make money during the tough times, how will they do when seat prices rise and when fuel costs decline? Good investors arrive at the party early and depart by the time late arriving crashers are deliriously drunk.

Among the significant recent changes in the airline business is that seat sizes are going "the other way". For a very long time, airlines increased the number of economy seats and reduced the number of first class seats. As the article title indicates, comfort is key to filling 18 hour long haul seats. The price is dear but what business is going to ask its employees to scrunch for 18 hours between NY and Calcutta? These long-haul flights are profitable but they sure beat taking a slow boat to China.

My families largest position is expected to get larger. Even though DAL and NWAC will be able to avoid bankruptcy, CAL will continue to take market share. UAL and USAir cut capacity during their bankruptcy. CAL is expanding. DAL, NWAC and CAL code share with a number of international players. The eventual big three in America may turn out to be AMR--et. al., UAL--et. al., and CAL--DAL--NWAC. Looking only at market cap, one would assume that LUV would be among my list of the big three. Looking at revenues, the others relegate LUV to the "small" category. If I were the operator of a hedge fund, I would consider selling LUV short and going long the others mentioned. LUV is profitable but so large that it must bump into major carriers if it wishes to expand. The reduction in costs by the majors allow them to increasingly go head to head with LUV.

AHH IS CORRECT! BUY THE BULL! THE ECONOMIC EXPANSION HAS SEVERAL YEARS TO RUN! CLIMB ON BOARD!

AS YOU SHOULD KNOW, I DO NOT MAKE STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUT ONLY REPORT ON STOCKS THAT I, AN AMATURE INVESTOR, LIKE. SEND ME NOTICE THAT YOU HAVE PURCHASED CAL HOLD IT UNTIL IT REACHES $64 AND YOU WILL BE INVITED TO THE $64 PARTY AT MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA!

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