TECH BOOM!

Technology stocks are BOOMING!

I have not been writing much lately. While at home, I am busy packing to move. In between packing, I am vacationing with family at Myrtle Beach. The next ten days, it will be the Miller family at the beach. I expect to have a great vacation while I keep an eye on the BULL!

Tech stocks are leading the way! Over the next few years, millions of folks will adopt HDTV, Mobile WiFi, Pocket Computers, media center computers, mobile TIVO-to-go, and much more. The "next" tech boom is here! Look at the charts of MOT, TXN, TIVO and other tech stocks to see the break-outs.

This has been a slosh and fill market but the BULL is trying hard to get loose. Whole sectors have traded up and down as investors try to find leadership. SIRI has been on a run for a few weeks but it has back tracked today after some folks pointed out how incredibly expensive the stock is. Many other stock values get out of whack and then there is a correction in the group. Short traders are caught in squeezes. The big problem short sellers have is that most try to own the best values while being short the worst values. However, the best values have been stagnant and the worst values have been participating in the rallies--ouch!

Projecting the value of any particular stock is always very hard in the short-term. The reason to own at least 15 stocks is to avoid big mistakes. Trying to be too precise is a good way to get into trouble. I am not saying to use the dart board approach. Indeed, I have invested heavily in high beta sectors because I believe in the BULL--it is here, it arrived in October of 2002 and only rested a while early this year. Also, I plead guilty of ignoring my own advice. My family is currently more than over-weight in the airline sector. The perceptions of this sector are so negative that we have become very comfortable owning 5 of the legacy carriers. We believe there is less risk in owing 5 carriers than all of any small business.

Market indicators said to sell bonds and buy stocks in October of 2002. This was a wonderful call. In hind sight, bonds did better than most professionals thought possible but stocks have done great. The BIG BULL BOOM is not over--the next stampede has started.

I am concerned that Cramer and others are now shouting about the BULL. The more people that use the word BULL the more cautious I will become. Sentiment indicators are no longer screaming "buy stocks" but we are not near screams of "sell stocks". I will not take money off the table lightly. For now, I will remain aggressive. Stocks are too cheap to be overly cautious.

BUY THE BULL--THE TECH BOOM IS HERE! THE OIL PRICE MOMENTUM IS DEAD--I SEE $55 OIL BEFORE $65--$65 WOULD NOT KILL THE MARKET. CONSERVATION AND INCREASED PRODUCTION WILL GRADUALLY WORK THEIR MAGIC. CHINA AND INDIAN DEMAND FOR OIL IS REAL BUT ONLY PART OF A STRONG WORLDWIDE ECONOMY. INFLATION PRESSURES HAVE SUBSIDED. THE MARKET CAN GO UP IN PARRALLEL WITH OIL PRICES AND SHORT INTEREST RATES BUT IT WILL REALLY MOVE IF OIL AND RATES HALT THEIR MOVES UPWARD.