Sunday, July 10, 2005

MIRROR MIRROR ON THE WALL WHO IS MOST CONTRARY OF ALL?

Some say I am an optimist but deep down I am a happy contrarian. The following numbers from the AMR annual report tell the whole story.

Operating Loss

2004 $144,000,000
2003 $844,000,000
2002 $3,330,000,000
2001 $2,470,000,000

AMR has had operating losses of almost $6 Billion in the past 4 years. The net losses have been over $7 Billion. In the past few months, my family has accumulated a significant position in the company.

After all the above numbers tell the story. Loses were huge in 2001 and enormous in 2002. Several of the companies competitor filed bankruptcy and Delta abandoned the competition at Dallas-Fort Worth.

It is a testament to the company that it was able to survive the worst period in airline history. Last year the company lost only 4% of what it lost two years earlier. Costs have been cut dramatically and load factors have soared.

CAL is my favorite airline. Management is doing a heck of a job with this one. One must be a little tough or a little crazy to buy airlines. Fuel costs are out the roof and two majors are still under the protection of bankruptcy court.

On the other hand, revenue passenger miles are out the roof and load factors are higher than ever before. Prices are up and ready to go up more. I can't tell you how the negotiations between unions and companies will work out at NWAC or DAL. It seems that employees at these firms must match the cuts at CAL and AMR to keep their jobs. Perhaps employees are ready and willing to go out of business but with the federal take over of the pension plans, retirements will be cut. It is best for the companies and for the unions to work out a competitive deal.

It is hard to buy DAL or NWAC but I did so last week. NWAC was my biggest gainer Friday but I am under water a little in this stock. Again, the reason to own 5 different carriers is to spread the risk even though there is little chance that AMR or CAL will not grow their businesses and profits. UAL and USAir will have competitive advantages when they come out of bankruptcy.

Mirror, mirror, I know these airlines are ugly but I'll kiss these frogs if they will continue on their course toward significant profits in 2006 and 2007. By the way, ownership interest is offered in the state owned Mexican airlines. Twenty percent of CAL international flights are to Latin American countries and 17 percent of its work force is Hispanic. I would not be surprised if AMR buys an interest in one and CAL buys into the other.

BUY THE BULL! MERGERS AROUND THE WORLD ARE HELPING BUSINESSES TO CUT COSTS AND TO INCREASE BOTTOM LINE PROFITS!

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