Tuesday, May 03, 2005


Having recently built large positions in CAL and AMR, today was a good market day. My family has gone airborne in a hurry. A few months ago we owned zero airline stocks. Now our largest position is CAL and AMR is not far down the list. These positions have even passed our Goodyear position in total size.

Chances of making money are good on a day when your largest position goes up 9.23%! AMR did not do badly; it went up 3.57%. We also got a good lift from Goodyear, up 2.63%. We also own a good chunk of Google which was up 1.75%. AMTD and GSK were also good performers.

Today, the FOMC increased interest rates by .25% as was expected. The chorus of worry warts was heard throughout the land.

The worry warts are crying one moment about inflation, the next about a slowing economy and some even bring up the term stagflation! The exclamation mark is there because we are not anywhere near stagflation. This term was used during the Carter administration to describe an economy that experienced double digit inflation and slow economic growth. Our current economy is enjoying steady economic growth and low inflation; almost the opposite of stagflation.

Invest in stocks and do not worry about zigging and zagging economic reports. The FOMC is correctly bringing short rates up to a reasonable level. The FOMC is no longer worried about the deflation risk that was present after September 11, 2001. Rates are now near the correct level as the core rate of inflation is slightly over 2%. The yield curve is forecasting a moderate slow down of GNP. Yes, Greenspan has been tapping the brakes for 8 quarters in a row. It is a mistake to fight the FED but the fed is not pushing for a big slow down. Quarter point moves are taps on the brakes and nothing more.

Reported corporate profits are very strong. The US government is enjoying large gains in tax revenues. The US economy is growing its way out of its fiscal deficit.

BUY THE BIG BULL BOOM BUBBLE BEFORE THE NEXT BUST! You have four or five years to make serious money! We hope you to have many a GOOD DAY!