Friday, April 15, 2005

Mark Hulbert: 2 of 3 Dow Theory letters still bullish after Thursday - Financial - Financial Services - Markets/Exchanges - Market News

The lead into the linked Hulbert article caught my eye as two out of three newsletters are still bullish. It actually said two of three Dow Theory Letters are still bullish. I certainly do not monitor as many letters as Hulbert but I find that a large majority of writers are currently bearish.

Remember the old economist was right when he said that in economics the majority is always wrong. The majority is very wrong at major turning points. Right now, the momentum players have jumped off the oil band wagon and are selling all but defensive stocks short. The combination of all those who were already bears and the new bears can push the market down for a while.

Relative strength will be the key on the turn. Many stocks have gone down the past few days. The question will become, "Which groups are going to lead on the way up".

For the past few days, health care has lead the way. In fact all the "second half" groups have out-performed. The performance numbers for the past 7 days are as follows;

Consumer discretionary -1.14
Industrial -1.07
Technology -2.3
Materials -5.49
Energy -4.6
Consumer staples +2.6
Health Care +4.4
Utilities +1.8
Financial +1.1