Tuesday, April 12, 2005

The Blogging Geyser: Blogs Blast from 31.6 Million Today to Reach 53.4 Million by Year End

The Blogging Geyser: Blogs Blast from 31.6 Million Today to Reach 53.4 Million by Year End

It is not apparent that Google is focusing on Blogspot since it was purchased but never-the-less it is one of the leaders. Surveys have shown that other blog services may be a little better but not $4.95 per month better. Our credits on Adsense are pretty small but it is nice to earn a little revenue. It is also nice not to pay $4.95 per month.

Blogging is a killer app in my opinion. It will be as big a deal as email. The Greensboro NC newspaper that is totally reorganizing around blogs is a good indication of the eventual power of blogs. Since I wrote, Do the Google Gulp on December 30, 2004, the stock has traded sideways. Yahoo earnings will be out next week. Advertising revenues are growing quickly. The projected increase for 31 million blogs to 53 million by year end represents millions and millions of new advertising bill boards for Google.

It is interesting to note the game of chicken being played by the Associated Press and Google. The AP wants Google to pay a license fee for displaying AP articles. I can't see AP winning at this game. There is a concurrent argument raging in regard to bloggers as journalist. Of the 53 million bloggers at year end, does it matter how many of them consider themselves to be journalist? Those who want to read about the local high school ball team are not likely to look to AP for the answer. Google has the ability to not display articles if folks do not want them displayed. It seems to me that even subscription based publications such as Business Week have decided that they need to offer at least limited online access.

The beauty again is that the distribution costs are nil. It only takes a small amount of advertising revenue per viewer to make online publication profitable. Yesterday, my page views were only 179 but I enjoy writing and it is not unreasonable for me to believe my page views will be 10 times as large in a year or two. It is my hope that my long experience as an investor will be received as a blessing by my readers. I know it is hard for anyone to consider buying a $190 per share stock that is a "bet on the come". However, this is largely what investing is all about. One is always investing on the future, not on the past. I feel about 98% certain that Google has a bright future for the next 10 to 30 years.

Anything can happen but internet is the modern day equivalent of the invention of the printing press and much more. Martin Luther was at the right place at the right time to change history. The fact that the printing press was invented presented his thoughts to the world and the world was changed. Now anyone can be published. The market will decide what is worth reading but the amount of published material is soaring beyond imagination. Google is in the process of scanning virtually all prior published works into the internet. The new "stuff" is clearly growing at the fastest pace in history and is being digitally captured as it is written. The world is changing and Google is leading the way. Do the Google Gulp!