Wednesday, March 02, 2005


A number of traders are nervous concerning Friday's payroll numbers. Last week, new claims were very low. As you might guess, payroll numbers work upside down and backwards from the way new investors think. If you remember Econ 101, then you know that inflation and payroll are inversely related. If the payroll numbers come in strong, fear of inflation is heightened, interest rates go up and stocks suffer.

Oil is moving up again; trading at $53.05. We are approaching another inflexion point. US short rates need to go up or the dollar needs to trade down. It would be good news for the market if unemployment claims go up.